🇲🇦 Morocco vs Haiti 🇭🇹

Morocco's expected goals (xG) of 2.33 against Haiti's 0.38 reflect a dominant attacking structure, likely driven by their high-press and transition efficiency, while Haiti's defensive fragility is exposed by their inability to generate meaningful chances against a top-10 side.

The win probability split (81.4% Morocco, 14% draw, 4.5% Haiti) aligns with the 86-rank gap, but the 2–0 most likely score (18.2%) suggests Morocco's finishing efficiency is key; Haiti's best hope is a low-block that limits Morocco to 1–0 (15.6% second most likely), but the xG differential indicates sustained pressure.

Morocco's 2022 semifinal run and current #8 ranking make them a group-stage favorite, while Haiti's first World Cup appearance since 1974 (as a different federation) means they face a steep learning curve; the xG gap mirrors historical mismatches between top-20 and sub-80 teams in the tournament.

The 81.4% win probability and 2.33 xG support a comfortable Morocco victory, likely 2–0 or 3–0, as Haiti's 4.5% win chance is statistically negligible; the model's 14% draw probability is inflated by potential early-game caution, but Morocco's depth should secure three points.