🇨🇿 Czechia vs Mexico 🇲🇽

Mexico's expected goals (xG) advantage of 1.59 to 1.11 reflects their higher FIFA ranking (#15 vs #41) and likely superior chance creation, but Czechia's defensive organization could keep the match tight, as indicated by the 25% draw probability and 1–1 most likely scoreline.

The win probability split (Mexico 48.5%, Czechia 26.5%) shows Mexico as clear favorites, but the 11.9% chance of a 1–1 draw suggests Czechia can be competitive, especially if they capitalize on set pieces or transitions—areas where lower-ranked teams often overperform relative to xG.

Czechia has not faced Mexico in a World Cup since 1962 (a 2–1 Mexico win), and Mexico has reached the Round of 16 in every World Cup since 1994, while Czechia (as Czech Republic) last advanced past the group stage in 2006—this experience gap may influence late-game composure.

The second most likely scoreline (0–1, 10.7%) aligns with Mexico's defensive solidity and Czechia's lower xG output; a narrow Mexico win is the most probable outcome, but the 25% draw chance makes a low-scoring stalemate a viable betting consideration.