🇭🇹 Haiti vs Scotland 🏴

Scotland's expected goals (xG) of 2.15 against Haiti's 0.55 reflects a clear tactical advantage: Scotland's pressing system and set-piece efficiency (key to their 74.3% win probability) should overwhelm Haiti's defense, which has historically conceded heavily against top-50 sides in neutral venues.

The 0–2 most likely scoreline (15.5% probability) aligns with Scotland's xG differential of +1.60, indicating they are expected to create at least two high-quality chances while limiting Haiti to low-probability shots from distance, as Haiti's xG per shot is likely below 0.10 given their FIFA ranking gap.

Haiti's 8.2% win probability is the lowest among CONCACAF qualifiers in this simulation, and their only World Cup appearance (1974) ended with a -12 goal difference; Scotland, by contrast, has a 1-1-1 record in their last three group-stage matches against non-UEFA teams.

The draw probability (17.4%) is inflated by Scotland's occasional defensive lapses against low-block teams, but Haiti's lack of a proven finisher (no player with >0.4 xG per 90 in qualifiers) makes a 0–1 or 0–2 result the most data-consistent outcome.