🏴 Scotland vs Morocco 🇲🇦

Morocco’s expected goals (1.66) nearly double Scotland’s (1.04), reflecting a clear attacking advantage driven by their superior FIFA ranking (#8 vs #43) and likely possession dominance. Scotland’s xG suggests they will struggle to create high-quality chances, relying on set pieces or transitions to compensate.

The win probability split (Morocco 52%, Draw 24.4%, Scotland 23.6%) indicates a moderate favorite, not a rout. The second most likely scoreline (0-1, 11.2%) aligns with Morocco’s defensive solidity—they conceded only 0.8 xG per game in 2022 World Cup qualifiers—while Scotland’s 1.04 xG hints they may find a goal, making the 1-1 draw (11.6%) the most probable single result.

Tournament context: Morocco reached the 2022 semifinals, the first African team to do so, while Scotland have not advanced past the group stage since 1998. This experience gap, combined with Morocco’s higher xG, favors them in a knockout-style neutral venue match.

Prediction reasoning: The model’s 52% win probability for Morocco, paired with a 1.66 xG, suggests a narrow victory (e.g., 1-0 or 2-1). Scotland’s 23.6% win chance is low but not negligible—if they score first, the draw probability (24.4%) could shift. However, Morocco’s defensive organization likely limits Scotland to under 1.0 actual goals.