🇧🇪 Belgium vs Iran 🇮🇷

Belgium's xG of 1.44 against Iran's 1.26 reflects a narrow edge in expected chance creation, but the 41.5% win probability suggests this is a highly competitive matchup. Belgium's strength lies in their structured build-up and individual quality in the final third, while Iran's defensive organization and counter-attacking threat—evidenced by their 32.8% win chance—could exploit Belgium's occasional defensive transitions.

The most likely scoreline of 1–1 (12.2% probability) indicates both teams are expected to find the net, but the second most likely 1–0 (9.7%) highlights Belgium's slight defensive advantage. Iran's ability to absorb pressure and hit on the break, combined with Belgium's vulnerability to set pieces (a historical weakness), makes this a key tactical battle.

In World Cup group stage contexts, Belgium has historically struggled against disciplined, low-block teams (e.g., 2018 vs. Japan, 2022 vs. Morocco). Iran, meanwhile, has a reputation for grinding out results in tight matches—they held Portugal to a 1–1 draw in 2018 and beat Wales 2–0 in 2022. This pattern aligns with the model's narrow xG gap and high draw probability.

The prediction leans toward a low-scoring draw or a narrow Belgium win. Belgium's superior individual talent (e.g., De Bruyne's creativity, Lukaku's finishing) gives them a slight edge, but Iran's compact defense and set-piece prowess could neutralize that. The 1–1 draw is the most probable outcome, with a 1–0 Belgium win as the next likely scenario if they convert early chances.