🇧🇪 Belgium vs Egypt 🇪🇬

Belgium's xG of 1.51 reflects their attacking efficiency, but their win probability (44.8%) is modest due to defensive vulnerabilities exposed by Egypt's counter-attacking threat, as Egypt's xG of 1.19 is competitive for a team ranked 20 spots lower.

The most likely scoreline of 1–1 (12.1%) suggests a tightly contested midfield battle, with Belgium's possession-based buildup likely neutralized by Egypt's compact defensive structure, a pattern seen in Egypt's recent World Cup qualifiers.

Egypt's 29.7% win probability is notable given their historical struggles against top-10 FIFA sides in World Cups (0 wins in 5 matches since 1990), but their xG output indicates they can create chances against a Belgium side that conceded 1.5+ xG per game in their last 10 competitive matches.

The second most likely score of 1–0 (10.2%) favors Belgium, but the narrow margin aligns with their tendency to underperform against lower-ranked opponents in group stages (e.g., 1–0 vs Canada in 2022), making a draw or upset plausible if Egypt's set-piece efficiency (30% of their goals from set plays) materializes.