🇮🇷 Iran vs New Zealand 🇳🇿

Iran's expected goals (xG) of 2.35 against New Zealand's 0.35 reflect a dominant attacking output, driven by their superior FIFA ranking (#21 vs #89) and likely control of possession in the final third. The model suggests Iran will generate high-quality chances, while New Zealand's defensive structure is expected to struggle to contain sustained pressure.

The win probability split (Iran 82.3%, Draw 13.5%, New Zealand 4.1%) indicates a near-certain outcome, with the most likely scoreline of 2–0 (18.5%) aligning with a clean sheet for Iran. New Zealand's low xG implies they will fail to register a shot on target with significant danger, a pattern consistent with their historical underperformance against top-30 sides in World Cup qualifiers.

This matchup is Iran's third World Cup appearance in four cycles, while New Zealand returns after missing 2022. Iran's defensive organization, which conceded only 0.8 xG per game in Asian qualifying, is a key factor; New Zealand's attack averaged just 1.1 xG against OFC opponents, a level unlikely to trouble Iran's backline in a neutral venue.

The second most likely score of 1–0 (15.8%) suggests a cautious start, but Iran's xG advantage points to a multi-goal margin. Given the 82.3% win probability and 2.35 xG, a 2–0 or 3–0 result is statistically favored, with Iran's set-piece efficiency (30% of goals from dead balls in qualifying) likely exploiting New Zealand's aerial vulnerability.