🇹🇷 Türkiye vs USA 🇺🇸

The statistical model projects a near-even contest with a slight edge to USA (39.4% win probability vs. Türkiye’s 34.8%), driven by a marginal xG advantage (1.4 vs. 1.3). This suggests both teams are likely to create similar quality chances, but USA’s higher xG reflects a slightly more efficient attacking structure, possibly from set pieces or transition opportunities.

The most likely scoreline of 1–1 (12.2% probability) and the second most likely 0–1 (9.4%) indicate a low-scoring, tight match. The combined probability of a draw (25.8%) is significant, implying defensive organization may neutralize attacking threats, especially given Türkiye’s tendency to concede fewer high-xG chances in neutral venues historically.

Türkiye’s FIFA ranking (#22) versus USA (#16) understates the gap in recent World Cup pedigree: USA has advanced from the group stage in three of the last four tournaments, while Türkiye has not reached the knockout rounds since 2002. This experience differential could manifest in late-game composure, particularly in a neutral venue setting.

The model’s win probabilities (USA 39.4%, Türkiye 34.8%) and xG disparity (0.1) suggest a narrow USA victory is the most probable outcome, but the high draw probability (25.8%) and 1–1 most likely scoreline caution against overconfidence. A disciplined USA midfield could tilt the balance, but Türkiye’s counter-attacking efficiency (implied by their xG per shot ratio) keeps them in the game.