🇵🇾 Paraguay vs Australia 🇦🇺

Australia's xG advantage (1.48 vs 1.22) reflects their higher FIFA ranking and likely midfield control, but Paraguay's defensive organization could limit clear chances, as the narrow win probability gap (43.2% vs 31.2%) suggests a competitive match.

The most likely scoreline of 1–1 (12.1%) and second most likely 0–1 (9.9%) indicate a low-scoring affair, with Australia's slight edge in expected goals driven by set-piece efficiency—a known strength against South American sides in recent World Cups.

Paraguay has not advanced past the group stage since 2010, while Australia reached the Round of 16 in 2022; this experience gap may influence late-game decision-making, especially with the draw probability at 25.6% making a stalemate a plausible outcome.

Given the xG differential and win probabilities, Australia is favored but not dominant; a narrow 1–0 or 2–1 victory for Australia is the most data-consistent prediction, though the 31.2% chance for Paraguay means an upset is within the model's margin.