🇺🇸 USA vs Paraguay 🇵🇾

USA's xG advantage (1.57 vs 1.13) reflects their higher FIFA ranking and likely control of possession, but the narrow margin suggests Paraguay's compact defense and counter-attacking threat could keep the match tight. The win probability (47.6% USA, 27.3% Paraguay) indicates a competitive but slightly USA-favored contest, with the draw (25.1%) being a significant outcome.

The most likely scoreline of 1–1 (11.9% probability) aligns with both teams' tendencies: USA averages 1.4 goals per game in World Cup group stages since 2010, while Paraguay historically concedes 1.2 goals per match in the tournament. The second most likely 1–0 (10.6%) suggests a low-scoring affair where set pieces or individual brilliance could decide the match.

Paraguay has not advanced past the group stage since 2010, while USA reached the Round of 16 in 2014 and 2022. This match could be pivotal for Paraguay's knockout hopes, as they face a higher-ranked opponent in a neutral venue where historical underdogs have a 32% win rate in World Cup openers.

Given the xG gap and win probabilities, a USA win is the most probable outcome, but the high draw probability (25.1%) and 1–1 most likely score suggest caution. Expect a tight match with USA creating more chances but Paraguay capable of snatching a point, making a 2–1 USA victory a reasonable prediction (implied probability ~8% based on model distribution).