🇨🇭 Switzerland vs Canada 🇨🇦

Switzerland's xG advantage (1.45 vs 1.25) reflects their structured defensive organization and efficiency in transition, but their win probability (41.6%) is only moderately higher than Canada's (32.7%), indicating a tight contest where set-piece execution could be decisive.

The most likely scoreline of 1–1 (12.2%) aligns with both teams' tendency to concede in open play: Switzerland allowed 1.2 xG per game in qualifying, while Canada's high-press system creates chances but leaves defensive gaps, as seen in their 1.3 xG against average.

Canada's 2022 World Cup debut ended with three group-stage losses, but their 2026 squad benefits from increased CONCACAF competitiveness; Switzerland, however, has reached the knockout stage in four of the last five World Cups, giving them a clear experience edge in high-stakes neutral matches.

Given the narrow xG margin and the 1–0 second-most-likely score (9.7%), Switzerland's slight edge in defensive solidity and tournament pedigree makes a low-scoring win (e.g., 1–0 or 2–1) the most probable outcome, though Canada's counter-attacking speed could produce an upset if they convert early chances.