🇨🇦 Canada vs Bosnia & Herzegovina 🇧🇦

Canada's xG of 1.64 against Bosnia's 1.06 reflects a clear attacking advantage, driven by their higher FIFA ranking and likely reliance on transition speed. The model suggests Canada will create more high-quality chances, but the 24.6% draw probability indicates Bosnia's defensive structure could limit clear-cut opportunities.

The most likely scoreline of 1–1 (11.7%) and second most likely 1–0 (11%) highlight a tight, low-scoring affair. Canada's win probability of 50.8% is only slightly above the draw, implying that while they are favorites, the match is highly competitive and likely decided by a single goal.

This is a neutral-venue group-stage match in the 2026 World Cup. For Canada, this represents a chance to build on their 2022 return to the tournament, while Bosnia is seeking their first World Cup win since 2014. The xG gap suggests Canada should control possession, but Bosnia's counter-attacking threat cannot be ignored.

Given the xG difference and win probabilities, the most probable outcome is a narrow Canada victory (1–0 or 2–1), but the 1–1 draw is statistically almost as likely. Expect a cautious start with both teams prioritizing defensive solidity, leading to a second-half breakthrough.