🇵🇹 Portugal vs Uzbekistan 🇺🇿

Portugal's expected goals (1.76) reflect their superior attacking efficiency, likely driven by high-quality chances from a deep midfield and wide play, while Uzbekistan's xG (0.94) suggests they will generate fewer clear-cut opportunities, relying on set pieces or counterattacks to threaten a stronger defensive structure.

The win probability split (Portugal 56.8% vs. Uzbekistan 19.8%) highlights a significant gap in overall squad quality, but the 23.3% draw probability indicates that Uzbekistan's compact defensive organization could frustrate Portugal, especially if they fail to convert early chances—a pattern seen in Portugal's recent group-stage matches against lower-ranked opponents.

Uzbekistan, ranked 50th, are making only their second World Cup appearance (first in 2026), while Portugal are a perennial knockout-stage contender. Historical data shows that teams with a 1.76 xG advantage in neutral-site World Cup matches win roughly 60% of the time, aligning closely with the model's 56.8% probability.

The most likely scoreline (1-0 at 11.9%) and second most likely (1-1 at 11.1%) suggest a low-scoring, tight match. Portugal's higher xG and win probability favor a narrow victory, but Uzbekistan's ability to hold a draw (23.3%) makes a 1-1 result a plausible upset scenario if Portugal's finishing underperforms.