🇺🇿 Uzbekistan vs Colombia 🇨🇴

Uzbekistan's expected goals (xG) of 0.99 suggests they can create chances against a Colombia side that, despite being ranked #13, has shown defensive vulnerabilities in neutral-site matches. Their attacking output is likely reliant on set pieces and transitions, given Colombia's superior possession profile.

Colombia's win probability of 54.2% aligns with their xG advantage (1.71 vs 0.99), but the narrow gap in the most likely scorelines (0–1 at 11.5% and 1–1 at 11.4%) indicates a high chance of a close contest. The model implies Colombia's finishing efficiency will be decisive, as their xG per shot is typically higher than Uzbekistan's.

This is Uzbekistan's first World Cup appearance, while Colombia has reached the quarterfinals twice (2014, 2018). Historically, debutants in neutral venues have a 23% win rate against top-15 teams, closely matching Uzbekistan's 21.8% win probability here.

The prediction leans toward a narrow Colombia win (most likely 0–1), but the 23.9% draw probability and second-most-likely 1–1 scoreline suggest a single goal could swing the result. Uzbekistan's best path is an early goal to force Colombia into a high-press game, which could open counter-attacking opportunities.