🇪🇨 Ecuador vs Germany 🇩🇪

Despite Germany's higher FIFA ranking and 41.9% win probability, Ecuador's xG of 1.25 suggests they are capable of creating quality chances against a German defense that has shown vulnerability in transition. The narrow xG gap (1.45 vs 1.25) indicates a closer contest than the ranking disparity implies, with Ecuador likely relying on counter-attacking speed to exploit Germany's high defensive line.

The most likely scoreline of 1–1 (12.2% probability) reflects a balanced midfield battle, but the second most likely 0–1 (9.8%) highlights Germany's slight edge in defensive solidity. Ecuador's win probability (32.4%) is notably higher than the implied odds from their xG alone, suggesting the model accounts for their efficiency in set-piece situations—a key area where they could trouble Germany.

Germany's World Cup pedigree (four titles) contrasts with Ecuador's best finish of Round of 16 (2006). However, Ecuador's recent form in South American qualifiers—including draws against top CONMEBOL sides—indicates they are no longer pushovers on neutral ground, and the xG model treats this as a competitive fixture rather than a mismatch.

The prediction leans toward a low-scoring draw or narrow German win, as the 25.7% draw probability combined with the 1–1 most likely score suggests neither team will dominate. Germany's superior depth and tournament experience may prove decisive in the final 20 minutes, but Ecuador's xG output supports their ability to earn at least a point if they convert their chances.