🇪🇨 Ecuador vs Curaçao 🇨🇼

Ecuador's expected goals (xG) of 2.31 against Curaçao's 0.39 highlights a massive efficiency gap in creating high-quality chances, driven by Ecuador's superior pressing and transition speed against a defense ranked 88th globally. The 81% win probability reflects a near-certain control of midfield, where Ecuador's physicality and technical depth should overwhelm Curaçao's limited possession retention.

The most likely scoreline of 2–0 (18% probability) aligns with Ecuador's tendency to score early and manage games, while Curaçao's 4.7% win probability underscores their reliance on set pieces or counterattacks—areas where Ecuador's defensive organization (conceding only 0.39 xG) is statistically robust. The 14.2% draw probability suggests Curaçao could absorb pressure but lacks the finishing to convert rare opportunities.

This is Curaçao's first World Cup appearance, making them the lowest-ranked debutant in the tournament's history. Ecuador, by contrast, has reached the Round of 16 in two of their last three appearances (2006, 2022) and benefits from a neutral venue that neutralizes any home advantage for Curaçao, further tilting the xG differential in Ecuador's favor.

Given the 2.31–0.39 xG split and 81% win probability, Ecuador should dominate possession and generate 15+ shots, with a high likelihood of scoring from open play. The 1–0 second-most-likely score (15.6%) indicates Curaçao's defense may hold for stretches, but Ecuador's superior depth and set-piece threat (notably from corners) make a multi-goal victory the most probable outcome.