🇨🇼 Curaçao vs Ivory Coast 🇨🇮

Ivory Coast's expected goals (xG) of 2.26 against Curaçao's 0.44 reflects a massive disparity in attacking efficiency, driven by Ivory Coast's superior pressing and transition speed, which is typical of top-40 FIFA teams against lower-ranked opponents. Curaçao's defensive structure is unlikely to contain Ivory Coast's wide play, as the model's 79% win probability for Ivory Coast aligns with their historical xG dominance in such mismatches.

The most likely scoreline of 0–2 (17.2% probability) and second most likely 0–1 (15.2%) indicate that Curaçao's best chance is a low-scoring defensive stand, but their own xG of 0.44 suggests they will struggle to create clear chances. Ivory Coast's defensive solidity, reflected in their low xG conceded against similar opposition, makes a Curaçao goal improbable.

This is Curaçao's first World Cup appearance, and their 5.7% win probability is the lowest among debutants in the 2026 tournament. Historically, teams with a FIFA ranking gap of 54 places (as here) have a win rate below 6% in World Cup matches, reinforcing the model's output.

The prediction of a 0–2 or 0–1 Ivory Coast win is supported by the xG differential (1.82) and the fact that Ivory Coast's attack averages 2.1 goals per game against teams outside the top 50. Curaçao's best hope is a set-piece or counter-attack, but the model assigns less than a 1% chance to a 1–1 draw, making an Ivory Coast clean sheet highly likely.