🇸🇳 Senegal vs Iraq 🇮🇶

Senegal's expected goals (xG) of 1.96 against Iraq's 0.74 reflect a clear attacking advantage, driven by their superior FIFA ranking (#14 vs #68) and likely dominance in possession and chance creation. The model suggests Senegal will generate nearly three times the quality of scoring opportunities, consistent with their status as a top African side with depth in forward positions.

The win probability split (Senegal 66%, Iraq 13.3%) and the most likely scoreline of 1–0 (13.2%) indicate a controlled, low-scoring affair rather than a rout. Iraq's defensive organization will be tested, but the second most likely result (2–0 at 12.9%) suggests Senegal's efficiency in front of goal could be decisive if they convert early chances.

This is Senegal's fourth consecutive World Cup appearance (2002, 2018, 2022, 2026), while Iraq returns for the first time since 1986. The historical gap in tournament experience—Senegal reached the Round of 16 in 2022—adds a psychological edge, as Iraq's squad lacks exposure to high-pressure knockout-stage environments.

The prediction leans toward a Senegal win by a narrow margin, likely 1–0 or 2–0, given the xG disparity and Iraq's tendency to sit deep. However, the 20.7% draw probability warns against complacency; if Senegal's finishing falters, Iraq could snatch a point via set pieces or counterattacks, as their xG (0.74) suggests limited but not zero threat.