🇮🇶 Iraq vs Norway 🇳🇴

Norway’s expected goals (1.83) more than double Iraq’s (0.87), reflecting a clear attacking advantage driven by Norway’s higher FIFA ranking (#31 vs #68) and superior offensive efficiency in the model. Iraq’s defensive structure will likely sit deep, but Norway’s ability to generate high-quality chances—evidenced by the 0–2 scoreline being the second most likely (11.3%)—suggests they can break through compact blocks.

The win probability split (Norway 60.3%, Draw 22.4%, Iraq 17.3%) aligns with a moderate favorite, not a blowout. Iraq’s 0.87 xG indicates they can create sporadic danger, likely from set pieces or counterattacks, but Norway’s defensive solidity (implied by the 0–1 most likely score at 12.3%) should limit Iraq to low-probability chances.

This is a neutral-venue group-stage match in the 2026 World Cup, where Norway’s tournament experience (three prior appearances, last in 1998) contrasts with Iraq’s sole 1986 campaign. Historical data shows lower-ranked teams like Iraq often struggle to convert limited xG into goals against top-40 sides, reinforcing the model’s prediction of a narrow Norway win.

The most likely scoreline (0–1, 12.3%) and second most likely (0–2, 11.3%) suggest a low-scoring affair where Norway controls possession but faces a disciplined Iraqi defense. The prediction favors Norway to win by a single goal, with the 1–0 result being a plausible alternative given the 0–1 symmetry and Iraq’s modest xG output.