🇳🇱 Netherlands vs Japan 🇯🇵

Netherlands' xG of 1.43 against Japan's 1.27 suggests a narrow edge in expected chance creation, but the win probability (41% vs 33.3%) indicates this is a highly competitive matchup where the Dutch slight superiority in attacking output is offset by Japan's defensive organization and counter-threat.

The most likely scoreline of 1–1 (12.2%) reflects the model's view that both teams are likely to score, with Netherlands' higher xG driven by possession-based buildup versus Japan's efficiency on transitions. The second most likely 1–0 (9.6%) for Netherlands highlights their defensive solidity (FIFA #7 ranking) as a key factor in low-scoring scenarios.

Japan has historically overperformed xG in World Cup knockout stages (e.g., 2022 vs Germany and Spain), but this neutral venue removes home advantage. Netherlands, despite higher ranking, have a 25.7% draw probability that aligns with their tendency to struggle against disciplined Asian sides in recent tournaments.

The model's narrow xG gap and balanced win probabilities favor a low-scoring draw or one-goal margin. Netherlands' superior individual quality in attack (e.g., Memphis Depay's finishing) may edge them, but Japan's set-piece threat and pressing system could exploit Dutch defensive lapses, making under 2.5 goals a statistically sound prediction.