🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia vs Uruguay 🇺🇾

Despite Uruguay's significant FIFA ranking advantage (#17 vs #51), the xG gap (1.69 vs 1.01) suggests a closer contest than the win probabilities imply, with Saudi Arabia's defensive organization likely limiting high-quality chances. Uruguay's 53.4% win probability is driven by superior squad depth, but their 1.69 xG indicates inefficiency in converting possession into clear-cut opportunities, a pattern seen in their recent World Cup performances.

The most likely scoreline (1–1 at 11.5%) and second most likely (0–1 at 11.4%) highlight a low-scoring, tight match. Saudi Arabia's 22.5% win probability is not negligible, as their counter-attacking style—evidenced by their 2022 World Cup upset of Argentina—could exploit Uruguay's occasional defensive lapses in transition, especially if Uruguay's press is disjointed.

Historically, Uruguay have struggled against Asian opposition in World Cups, with a 1–1–2 record in their last four such matches (including a 1–0 loss to South Korea in 2010). Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, have lost their last six World Cup openers, but their 2022 victory over Argentina shows they can defy odds when tactical discipline holds.

The model's 1–1 draw as the most probable outcome (11.5%) aligns with Saudi Arabia's ability to absorb pressure and strike on the break, while Uruguay's 1.69 xG suggests they will create enough to score but may lack the cutting edge to secure a win. Expect a cagey first half with Uruguay dominating possession but Saudi Arabia posing a persistent threat on set pieces and fast breaks.